1. What is the amount of Chinese fireworks and firecrackers exported to the United States in the 2018 marketing season?
1）A well-known American media expects the United States to import more than $900 million in fireworks from China this year (2018).
2) Data source: China Business Research Institute database
From January to May 2018, the export value of fireworks and firecrackers in China was US$300 million, down 0.3% year-on-year. Looking at the export value of fireworks and firecrackers in China in the past five years, the compound annual growth rate was -1.17%.
3) worldstopexports data:
China's total export fireworks in 2017 was US$719.7 million, accounting for 85.6% of global fireworks exports.
From the above: China's fireworks and firecrackers export to the United States, 300 million US dollars is credible, but the United States should be based on retail prices, that is, 900 million, or 1 billion dollars, or even higher.
China's fireworks export situation in 2018 for reference:
Source: China Business Research Institute Database
2. In the first half of 2018, affected by various factors in China, the US independent daily sales season, the fireworks delivery rate showed a large decline. This has caused a major impact on some US fireworks importers, coupled with rising costs and other factors, may accelerate industrial transfer. Although currently more than 90% of US consumer fireworks are imported from China, the future will not be ruled out.
3. The US fireworks export market is dominated by the credit sales model for China. In the next few years, this model is not expected to change fundamentally. In particular, after the large-scale fireworks dealers in the US market gradually monopolize the market, they are faced with more difficult choices for Chinese fireworks manufacturers: orders are large and risks are increasing. If you don't do the credit sales, your own pressure is there, and some factories are only able to manage the factory.
4. Most of China's fireworks export enterprises, despite the use of modern management tools and facilities, but the management model and thinking are still based on family workshops, lacking strategic management thinking and effective support for the team in the future.
Our entire industry does not have relevant departments or agencies to study the latest US fireworks market, conduct predictable policy analysis, such as how to deal with trade disputes in the future, and give substantial help and advice to Chinese fireworks export enterprises. So far, the basics are still groping by the company itself, and the relevant organizations that have been established have not seen strong support. This is the United States Fireworks Association NFA, and the American Fireworks Association APA is worth learning, the latter directly involved in the development of American fireworks standards. During the 2018 Independence Day sales season, APA did a lot of publicity work, and also maintained close communication with agencies such as the US Federal Government such as CPSC (American Consumer Council).
5. The risk of tariffs and fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate deserves close attention in the future.